AGP Executive Report

Security and Arms: President Daniel Chapo urged people to surrender illegal firearms voluntarily by December, warning that authorities would collect them after the amnesty ends. He said those who hand in weapons during the programme will not be questioned or punished. Political Rights: A commentary on youth voices in Mozambique highlights a gap between constitutional guarantees of free expression and the risks young people face when speaking out on corruption, inequality and police conduct. National Dialogue: Mozambique’s National Dialogue has moved to consolidating proposals following hearings with the diaspora, a key step in a process aimed at addressing the country’s political challenges. Regional Diplomacy: Mozambique and Tanzania have adopted joint measures to address security threats, while Maputo reiterated at the UN its support for a self-determination referendum in Western Sahara.

Security: President Daniel Chapo says authorities will forcibly collect illegally held firearms after December, urging citizens to surrender them under the amnesty and telling police to respect the law and human rights. Diplomacy: At the UN, Mozambique reaffirmed support for a self-determination referendum in Western Sahara, still awaited since 1990. Regional cooperation: Mozambique and Tanzania have agreed on joint measures against security threats, including stronger defence and security ties. National Dialogue: The process has moved to consolidating proposals following hearings with the diaspora.

Security: Mozambique and Tanzania have agreed on joint measures to tackle security threats, as a separate report warns the Mozambican army is losing ground in its counter-insurgency campaign. Economic Outlook: The government has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% and says it plans to repay 81.3 billion meticais owed to suppliers, a major test of public finances. Political Accountability: A Maputo court has temporarily barred Podemos’ central bodies from acting after a former secretary-general challenged their expired mandates, putting party leader Albino Forquilha’s position in question. National Dialogue: Talks have moved to consolidating proposals after diaspora hearings, while the Bar Association has stressed that lasting peace must respect the Constitution. Nacala Port: The government expects to choose a private operator by March, but scrutiny is growing over whether the wider commercial and political system around the port can support fair, accountable management.

Regional Security: Mozambique and Tanzania have agreed on joint measures to counter security threats, deepening cooperation as the country faces an ongoing insurgency in the north. Resettlement: President Daniel Chapo handed over a resettlement complex in Tete, part of efforts to support communities displaced by conflict. Economic Governance: The government cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% and announced a plan to repay 81.3 billion meticais owed to suppliers. National Dialogue: The government-led dialogue has moved to consolidating proposals after hearings with the diaspora, with the next test being whether the process delivers concrete reforms. Party Politics: A court dispute over Podemos’ leadership has put the tenure of its central bodies in question, highlighting deepening tensions inside the opposition party.

Port Governance: Nacala’s planned private-operator tender, expected by March, faces a wider test than efficiency: an analysis points to questions over political and commercial influence, including allegations in a $150 million commodities dispute now before arbitration. Regional Security: Mozambique and Tanzania agreed to strengthen border coordination and information-sharing against terrorism and organised crime, with Cabo Delgado among the security concerns. Diplomacy and Development: President Daniel Chapo’s visit to Congo produced 10 cooperation agreements spanning energy, maritime affairs and business; in Tete, he handed over a resettlement complex for households affected by mining. Political Dialogue: Mozambique’s National Dialogue has moved to consolidating proposals after diaspora hearings, keeping a key political process in focus. Public Finances: The government has revised projected growth down to 0.9% and announced a plan to settle 81.3 billion meticais in supplier arrears.

Regional Security: Mozambique and Tanzania agreed to strengthen border security, share intelligence and coordinate responses to terrorism and organized crime, with Cabo Delgado a key concern. Mining & Communities: President Daniel Chapo handed over a Vulcan-funded resettlement complex in Tete, providing housing and public services for households affected by coal mining. Diplomacy: Chapo’s visit to Congo produced 10 cooperation agreements covering energy, maritime affairs, fisheries, tourism and political consultations. Economic Outlook: The government cut its GDP growth forecast to 0.9%, underscoring the pressure on economic recovery. Regional Ties: Mozambique and Botswana agreed to upgrade their cooperation framework to a president-led Binational Commission, aimed at tracking trade and investment commitments. National Dialogue: Consultations moved into consolidating proposals after hearings with the diaspora.

Economic Outlook: Mozambique has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% from 2.8%, with flooding and economic shocks weighing on activity; the government also warns El Niño could hit 52 districts. Public Finances: The government plans to validate 81.3 billion meticais in supplier debts within 90 days and pay small suppliers 6 billion meticais a year, while tightening controls on new commitments. Mining and Revenue: Abu Dhabi’s IRH has offered to acquire Kenmare Resources, which operates the Moma titanium mine; Kenmare is also negotiating with Maputo to extend its mineral-processing and export rights in return for higher royalties. Foreign Relations: President Daniel Chapo is expected to visit Russia this month, where the two governments hope to sign cooperation agreements and attract investment. Regional Security: Mozambique and Tanzania have signed new defence and security agreements, including measures to protect peace and citizens in both countries.

Economic Outlook: The government has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% from 2.8%, citing floods and economic shocks. It says a reconstruction plan is under way, as forecasters warn of possible El Niño impacts across 52 districts. Public Finances: Maputo plans to validate MZN81.3 billion in obligations and pay small suppliers MZN6 billion a year, while tightening controls to prevent new arrears. Climate Finance: Mozambique has mobilized $47 million for climate response and sustainable energy, with Belgian and Mozambican agencies set to implement projects. Trade Enforcement: Agriculture Minister Roberto Albino says cashew smuggling cost the state MZN457 million over three years and wants the trade treated as a criminal offence. Diplomacy: President Daniel Chapo is expected to visit Russia this month, where the countries hope to sign cooperation agreements. Security: A South African mechanic abducted in a September attack on a camp in Niassa has been released unharmed; seven others reportedly remain unaccounted for.

Regional Security: Tanzania and Mozambique have agreed to deepen military, intelligence and border cooperation against terrorism and cross-border crime. The pact comes as a South African mechanic abducted from a camp in Niassa was released after nearly a month; Pretoria thanked Maputo for helping secure his release. Public Finance: Finance Minister Carla Loveira puts state obligations to suppliers at MZN81.3bn. Planned annual repayments of MZN6bn would clear only a fraction, while the government also plans to invest MZN6.4bn a year in a development bank—raising questions about budget priorities. National Dialogue: Mozambique’s national dialogue has moved to consolidating proposals after diaspora hearings. The Bar Association says lasting peace must respect the Constitution. Displacement and Jobs: IOM reports more than 730,000 displaced people have returned to their areas, though Cabo Delgado still hosts 449,876. A new agreement with Qatar creates a framework for safe, rights-protected labour recruitment, but does not mean jobs are immediately available.

Security and Displacement: Four people kidnapped in Cabo Delgado were released after their families reportedly paid a ransom; residents remain fearful as insurgents target communities. More than 730,000 displaced people have returned home, but Cabo Delgado still hosts 449,876 displaced people—68% of the national total. National Dialogue: Mozambique’s inclusive dialogue has moved to consolidating proposals after diaspora hearings in nine countries. Ten working groups will organize contributions on issues including constitutional and electoral reform, justice and natural resources. Police Administration: Interior Minister Paulo Chachine urged PRM officials to strengthen emergency response and ensure transparent financial management as new police leaders took office. Transport Policy: Transport Minister João Matlombe is promoting coastal shipping as a way to ease pressure on roads and improve domestic freight links. Labour Migration: Mozambique and Qatar signed an agreement to create formal channels for Mozambicans seeking work in Qatar, with safeguards for workers’ rights; no vacancies or applications have yet been announced.

Mozambique Inclusive National Dialogue: Mozambique’s diaspora consultations have ended and the National Dialogue is now consolidating proposals, with 10 working groups set to organize inputs from hearings across nine countries (including South Africa, Portugal, Germany and others), under three reform scenarios ranging from constitutional overhaul to moderate adjustments. Mozambique Security & Rights: A Mozambique Conflict Monitor update warns Islamic State Mozambique is tightening pressure on civilians in Cabo Delgado, with heightened tension in Mocímboa da Praia and concerns that hostage releases could spur more abductions affecting humanitarian groups, mining and tourism. Diplomacy & Parliament: Mozambique’s National Assembly authorized ambassadorial appointments, including Raúl Li Causi to Belgium/EU and Juan Carlos Fernandes Juárez to Portugal, alongside approval of a ship pollution protocol annex. Justice & Peace Framework: The Mozambican Bar Association marks the 1992 General Peace Agreement anniversary by stressing that sustainable peace must rest on constitutional rule, rights protection, and a credible justice system. Regional Governance Watch: South Africa’s AU human rights body rejected claims it is inherently xenophobic, while Mpumalanga police arrested 22 suspected illegal miners, including Mozambicans, under intensified enforcement. Conservation & Environment: Zinave National Park’s rewilding story continues, with Peace Parks reporting 37 rhinos returned since 2022 and seven calves, after the war-era “silent graveyard” collapse.

Inclusive National Dialogue: Mozambique’s diaspora public hearings are over, and the Inclusive National Dialogue has moved to consolidating proposals, with 10 working groups now organizing inputs from citizens in South Africa, Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Tanzania, Kenya, Portugal and Germany. Constitutional Peace: The Mozambican Bar Association marks the 34th anniversary of the 1992 General Peace Agreement, arguing peace must be grounded in constitutional rule, rights, a functioning justice system and credible institutions. Cabo Delgado Security: A new report says Mozambique’s army has improved through foreign training, but abuses against civilians still erode community support needed to defeat insurgents. Energy & Investment: President Daniel Chapo calls for stronger Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation as a Chinese-invested farm boosts yields; meanwhile, Nampula’s governor pitches Indian investors on oilseed and edible-oil projects. Corruption & Justice: A Mozambican businessman in the US has been sentenced to 135 months for a money-laundering conspiracy tied to the Maiaia Group in Nampula. Mining & Regional Spillover: South Africa’s Operation Vala Umgodi arrests 22 suspected illegal miners in Mpumalanga, including Mozambican nationals. Maritime & Climate: Scientists report more orca and whale shark sightings off Mozambique, linking the shift to El Niño-driven changes in currents and food sources.

Mozambique Peace Dividend: President Daniel Chapo marked the 34th anniversary of the 1992 General Peace Agreement with a push for “peace that yields tangible benefits,” linking reconciliation to jobs, production, incomes, and a next phase of economic independence through mining, oil, local content, and agricultural industrialization. Cabo Delgado Security Reality Check: A new report argues Mozambique’s army has gained training and support, but abuses against civilians and weak on-the-ground security still erode community backing needed to beat insurgents. Religious Freedom Under Pressure: Christian groups urged Mozambique to follow through on UN Human Rights Council commitments on civilian protection, displacement support, and freedom of religion or belief amid the ongoing humanitarian crisis in northern provinces. ENH Leadership Focus: Coverage highlights Mozambique’s national hydrocarbons company, ENH, entering a “consequential chapter” under Rudêncio Morais, with attention on strengthening ENH’s commercial and operational role across the energy value chain. Energy Industry Signals: Separate business coverage points to Kaeso Energy Services expanding across Southern Africa, including into Mozambique, while Gemfields sets higher processing targets for its Montepuez ruby mine and reports impairment tied to premium ruby performance.

Renamo Crisis in Quelimane: Demobilized Renamo fighters are pressuring for the withdrawal of the riot police (UIR) from Renamo headquarters in Quelimane, saying the deployment is blocking dialogue as internal factions demand leadership changes. Cabo Delgado Security and Rights: A new assessment says Mozambique’s army has received external training, but abuses against civilians and weak community protection still undermine counter-insurgency gains in the north. Peace Dividend Push: President Daniel Chapo marked the 34th anniversary of the 1992 General Peace Agreement, arguing that peace must translate into jobs, production, incomes, and a next phase of economic independence. Administrative Tribunal Approves State Accounts: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% GDP contraction in 2025, revenues at 364.5bn meticais, and spending at 89.6% of the budget with a smaller-than-projected deficit. Cabo Delgado Mining Update: Gemfields recorded a $125.2m impairment tied to revised ruby recovery outlooks at Montepuez, even as overall processed volumes rose. Religious Freedom Appeal: Christian groups urged Mozambique to follow through on commitments on civilian protection, displacement support, and freedom of religion or belief amid the northern humanitarian crisis. Regional Youth Games Torch: The AUSC Region 5 Youth Games torch continued its relay toward Maputo, with officials framing it as unity and regional friendship.

Renamo Internal Crisis: Demobilized Renamo fighters in Quelimane are demanding the withdrawal of the riot police (UIR) from the party’s headquarters, escalating pressure on Ossufo Momade amid claims the police presence is blocking dialogue and worsening internal splits. Mozambique’s Public Finance Oversight: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% GDP contraction in 2025, revenues at 364.5bn meticais, and a lower-than-projected deficit after disruptions linked to the post-2024 election crisis. US–Mozambique Cooperation Talks: President Daniel Chapo met US President Donald Trump’s orbit on the Millennium Challenge Account and future projects, with priorities including critical minerals, agriculture, infrastructure and counter-terrorism. Agriculture & China Link: Chapo called for stronger Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation after visiting the Wanbao rice farm in Gaza, highlighting yield gains for local farmers and expansion hopes for other crops. Regional Youth Games Torch: The AUSC Region 5 Youth Games torch continued its relay toward Maputo, with officials framing it as a unity symbol ahead of the December 4–13 event. Cabo Delgado Mining Update: Gemfields recorded a $125.2m impairment tied to revised ruby recovery outlooks at Montepuez Ruby Mining, even as overall production rose in the first half of the year. Cross-Border Security: Nine Mozambicans were arrested in Mpumalanga during South Africa’s Operation Vala Umgodi targeting illegal mining, with authorities checking immigration status. Climate & Rights Pressure: A global study warns climate disasters are increasing risks of child marriage, teen pregnancy and violence against girls, with Mozambique included in the broader regional climate-health concern.

Renamo Internal Crisis: Demobilized Renamo fighters in Quelimane demand the withdrawal of the UIR riot force from the party’s headquarters, escalating pressure on leader Ossufo Momade and calling for dialogue without police constraints. Mozambique Governance & Economy: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% economic contraction in 2025, revenues at 94.5% of target, and a smaller-than-projected deficit amid post-2024 election fallout. Agriculture & China Links: President Daniel Chapo urged stronger agricultural cooperation with China after visiting the Wanbao rice farm in Gaza, pointing to expansion of the Chinese model to boost food production. US-Mozambique Projects: Chapo met Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UN Summit to discuss Millennium Challenge Account projects, including infrastructure, health, critical minerals, agriculture, and counter-terrorism. Regional Security/Politics: South Africa arrested nine Mozambicans in Mpumalanga during Operation Vala Umgodi targeting illegal mining, with immigration status checks underway. Cabo Delgado Mining: Gemfields recorded a $125.2m impairment tied to revised ruby recovery outlooks at Montepuez, despite higher overall production volumes. Water & Climate Pressure: El Niño-driven dry spells are expected to worsen drought risk across southern Africa, including southern and central Mozambique, raising stakes for agriculture and water planning.